Bangkok’s condominium sector continues to contract, despite reductions in transfer and mortgage fees and more lenient loan-to-value ratios. The persistent economic slowdown and weak demand from overseas buyers drive this trend.
Government stimulus and a more flexible monetary policy have provided some support for demand. However, affordability issues and strict credit conditions remain significant obstacles. Banks maintain liquidity and support for developer financing, but tighter loan approvals and high household debt restrict access to mortgages.
During the first quarter of 2025, developers introduced 6,306 new condominium units across 14 projects, with a total value of 19.8 billion baht. This figure represents a 72% rise compared to the same period last year, yet a 35.1% drop from the fourth quarter of 2024. The mass market, with units priced below 100,000 baht per square metre, accounted for 60.5% of new launches. Luxury units, priced above 200,000 baht per square metre, made up only 3.1%.
Sales reached 4,045 units, resulting in a take-up rate of 64.2%, which is 2.5% lower year-on-year. Many buyers postponed purchases, waiting for the transfer fee reduction. A gradual improvement is anticipated in the second quarter.
Forecasts indicate that new condominium launches in 2025 will total around 25,000 units, a 14.2% increase from 2024. However, the take-up rate is expected to fall by 3-5% year-on-year due to the ongoing economic challenges. Medium-term recovery depends on structural reforms, such as reducing household debt and easing lending criteria. Without these changes, access to mortgages will remain limited, increasing the risk of a larger gap between supply and demand.
Foreign investors are also expected to reduce property acquisitions. The global economic downturn and declining confidence among overseas buyers contribute to this trend. Kasikorn Research Center projects a 2.6% decrease in foreign condominium transfers in 2025, the first drop in three years, revising its earlier forecast of a 1.2% decline. Recent events, including safety concerns among Chinese buyers and an earthquake, have further affected perceptions of high-rise condominiums.
Condominium transfers by foreign buyers fell by 0.5% year-on-year to 3,919 units during the first quarter. Purchases by Chinese buyers, the largest group of overseas buyers, dropped 7% year-on-year to 1,481 units. Transfers to buyers from Myanmar, the second-largest group, increased by 12% to 439 units.
