The Housing Developer’s Sentiment Index for Greater Bangkok dropped to 42.0 in the first quarter of 2025, marking the fourth-lowest level since the survey began in late 2007. This figure fell 8.4 points from the previous quarter, trailing only the troughs seen during the 2011 floods (37.1), the 2008 global financial crisis (37.3), and the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 (41.2).
The index fell below the neutral 50-point mark 27 times since inception, signalling weaker confidence among developers. The lowest reading, 37.1, occurred in Q4 2011 amid severe floods, plunging from 57.2 the prior quarter. It rebounded to 55.8 in Q1 2012 and stayed above 50 until slipping to 44.1 in Q1 2014 during a political crisis. During the 2008 financial crisis, the index remained below 50 for five consecutive quarters before recovering to 57.0 in Q3 2009. The longest stretch below 50 lasted ten quarters from Q2 2019 to Q3 2021, covering the first general election since 2014 and the pandemic’s onset. Another seven-quarter stretch below 50 ran from Q1 2023 to Q3 2024. The index briefly rose above 50 to 50.4 in Q4 2024, helped by government property incentives.
REIC attributed the Q1 2025 decline to high household debt, tighter mortgage regulations, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the US reciprocal tariff policy. These factors dampened both investor and homebuyer confidence. The survey was conducted in early March, before the earthquake on March 28.
The expectations index, reflecting sentiment for the next six months, dropped to 52.3 in Q1 2025 from 64.3 in Q4 2024 but remained above 50. This suggests developers expect market improvement in Q2, supported by government initiatives, eased loan-to-value limits, and property incentives valid through June 2026.
